Ask the Reports: ATR Answers Your Baseball Questions – April 29th, 2012

Q: Raleigh/Durham could support a team. Plenty of advertising money, a long tradition of the Bulls since 1902, lots of NE and California newbies, the Carolinas have their own LEAGUE they support, lots of sports fans in general (basketball, football, NHL and the MLS is considering the area for a soccer franchise now). Atlanta is the default team but it’s eight hours away while DC is four. Little league baseball is exploding with new families that love the fact that they can now play almost all year-long. They’ve also proven they can support an NHL franchise. They could ‘upgrade’ the Bulls or take the Rays.

Brooklyn’s a dream because the Bombers & Mutts would have to agree on it…and they will not. Same goes for NJ, Yonkers & Long Island. They’ve got it good and they know it.

Buffalo could work. Portland has a chance and I know NOTHING about Austin but that seems like a hungry area on paper. Not many mentions about on this thread.

All in all, if it were MY money? I’d bet on the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill ‘Triangle’ to be most successful.  Ralph

JH: Great comment Ralph, thanks for sharing. So your money is on North Carolina…you are not alone in your thinking. Since we published our article on MLB expansion, we have received countless of messages supporting North Carolina. YOu bring up many good points in supporting the area. It seems like an area of strong growth and the demand for baseball is there. Ultimately, I can see Major League Baseball promoting the Durham Bulls to the big leagues. I see the vision very clearly and I think it will happen. The history of the area and the team makes it a great fit. Bull Durham certainly helped. A legacy movie, that will live in our hearts forever. Imagine the cast of the movie coming to throw out the first ceremonial pitch when Durham joins Major League Baseball. The marketing possibilities are endless. Think of it as the Mighty Ducks…only without an expiration date. I don’t as much about the hockey support, as I have heard mixed reviews on the amount of fanbase in the area. But I will say this from what I know- the fans that love the Hurricanes are diehards. North Carolina is clearly a sports hotbed. I would love to see baseball there.

The Brooklyn return of Major League Baseball, I agree, will be difficult to impossible. Territorial rights alone it won’t happen. But the area can support a third team, it is more a question of politics than anything else. Buffalo I don’t see happening. Despite the success of their AAA team, Buffalo is not viewed as an up-and-coming area. With the city in a real danger of losing its NFL franchise one day, the last thing I see is a MLB team there. Portland is a strong contender, as would be a third Texas franchise (in San Antonio or surrounding area). But I also don’t see a third Texas franchise for the same reasons as Brooklyn. There are other cities to consider as mentioned in previous articles including Nashville, Vancouver, Montreal (really…really?), Mexico City and so forth. But I like your points on North Carolina and when we see two new expansion MLB franchises, I have no issue and would support the Durham Bulls as one of the chosen ones. One another note- the Rays. Many people discuss their potential relocation. I see the A’s moving much before the Rays.

Q: Should be one of the 2 cities that MLB expand to if it expands in the next few years the city itself has almost 800,000 people the metro area really is about 2,500,000. I do not know why Iredell County which is almost in Charlotte and includes Statesville and Mooresville 2 of Charlotte’s fastest growing suburbs and Lancaster County in SC which literally comes right up in Charlotte is not included in the Metro count and I did not even mention Catawba County which is also right next to Charlotte’s Mecklenburg County and have almost 170,000 people. Charlotte’s CSA is a more accurate account of Charlotte’s Metro which is 2,442.000 people according to this year Census for July 2011 and 2,402,000 for the census taken in 2010.. Charlotte is really the heart or (the capital) of the Carolinas as it set right on the North and South Carolina border and within a 100 mile radius is almost 8,000,000 people “the 5th largest urban center in the USA” (look it up) and that do not include Raleigh NC as it is 140 miles away. It is the Second Largest Banking Center in the USA, it is going to host the Democratic National Convention this summer in 2012.

Also did I mention Charlotte was in the mist of investing 1 Billion Dollars in It’s airport which is already the 8 busiest in the world. See Charlotte Observer 04/15/2012 article investing in the airport. To the person who wrote earlier that this is Atlanta territory no, NO WAY Georgia is Atlanta territory. The Carolinas Baseball Team belong in Charlotte NC. Oh by the way did I mention there are 14,200,000 in the Carolinas. We Charlotte need MLB.  TC

JH: Thank you TC. If there was ever any doubt that North Carolina was deserving of a MLB franchise, TC answered even more questions. I wonder if the team would go to Durham or Charlotte.  Maybe Raleigh. While I can really see the Durham selection, TC favors Charlotte. Here are my thoughts. The main point is to make the decision to put a team in North Carolina. Once the area is selected, the city is secondary. Clearly Charlotte has many factors going its way, as does Durham. In my mind I see Durham, but if the numbers ultimately make more sense in Charlotte- then perhaps it will be Charlotte. We also have to consider many many factors, such as ownership, availability of land, funding for a ballpark, tv deals etc. So while we can point to an area and think it is more deserving, there are many other factors that can lead to a decision to be made. Most are politically driven. I will agree though that Charlotte has a good shot and should be considered when MLB decides to expand and/or relocate franchises.

Q: Love the topic of expansion. Its exciting and let’s you get creative. However this list has some problems. Coming from a family where my father has worked in baseball front offices for the past 35 years I have gathered a fair amount of knowledge in this category. Most of the cities mentioned already have some type of baseball most at the AAA level. Yes a MLB team can move into that market and displace the former team, but then they have to find another city to move to which isn’t exactly east with almost every viable city taken. With that in mind Las Vegas, Sacramento, Memphis, Nashville, San Antonio, Brooklyn, and New Orleans are then eliminated. Leaving Portland, Mexico City, Orlando, and Montreal has the only options left. You can then eliminate Mexico City because players wouldn’t play there because of crime and the fact they would be paid in pesos like Blue Jays players are paid in Canadian dollars. Orlando can be eliminated because the Marlins and Rays already struggle, and most of Floria is “baseballed” out by June because of Spring Training. Leaving you with only 2 seriously viable options with Portland and Montreal. However Seattle would try to block Portland, that’s when you then copy the Baltimore/Washington model with Baltimore a guaranteed selling price and the creation of MASN. A little complicated, but doable. Montreal would still have baseball if Loria hadn’t driven it into the ground. But they would need a new stadium and Montreal is still having problems with Olympic Stadium so the city is already weary of stadiums. Overall Portland and Montreal are the best 2 options.  HC

JH:   You have given us much food for thought in your answers. Keep in mind that a Montreal and Mexico City franchise would pay their players in U.S. dollars, as the Jays do. But revenues, mainly gate receipts and possibly television dollars are in the local currency. So when your revenues/expenses are in different currencies, the value of money plays a large role in the financial health of a franchise. Personally, I have no opposition to the granting of a MLB franchise to a AAA city. If the location is proven to support baseball and worthy, let them have their MLB team. Another AAA location can always be found, including the cities in consideration for a MLB franchise that are not successful. I would not discount at all Las Vegas, Sacramento, Memphis, Brooklyn etc. So while I agree that politically and economically certain cities may have advantages over others, when Major League Baseball decides to expand by 2 teams- any and every city will be in consideration. So when I look at your list of two- I will agree and disagree. I will agree that Portland is a strong option. The area is getting a ton of support and is seen a strong favorite. Perception is often reality and with the Portland name thrown out enough times, it could very well stick. It is seen as an area that can and will support Major League Baseball. Provided that the ownership, stadium, funding issues are all cleared- I would certainly expect Portland to receive strong consideration. They are also on my list of top-2 options. Montreal on the other hand, I don’t see it happening. I really don’t. I am Canadian, born and raised in Toronto. I know all about the popularity of the Expos at their peak and the demise of the franchise. But there are many simple reasons why I don’t see Major League Baseball going to Montreal. Too many strong U.S. options. No real reason to expand back into Canada. The Expos were not supported in Montreal in the last few years and good luck in getting government dollars to build another stadium. Players at the time loved visiting Montreal the city, but I don’t today’s players would be really excited to live in Montreal. It’s not like the Jays are selling out every game and taking the baseball world by storm. I can see Vancouver getting a franchise before Montreal. But even Vancouver lost its NBA franchise and is not exactly seen as the most ideal baseball landing spot. From a selfish point of view, I would love to have another MLB franchise in my backyard. But politically and economically, this decision will not happen. Montreal was lucky to have a MLB team once upon a time and for many factors, they lost their team. Bottom line- if the fans had come out to more games, the team would still have been there. The lack of fan support factored heavily into the team’s move from the city, as it does in many relocation cases. If fans love their team and want the team to stay in their city, they need to buy tickets. Clear as day. To stay away from games in hopes that it will lead to a new stadium being built, that strategy does not always succeed. The Marlins fans got lucky. The Expos fans did not. Again call it politics…but it is what it is. The Rays and A’s fans are about to find out that sad fact very soon as well. Both teams are in real danger of relocation. Poor attendance only pushes for relocation, even more than a new stadium in my book. If those cities lose their MLB franchises, don’t expect a return for a long time. Montreal is living proof and Major League Baseball is not coming back. Not now…or ever in my mind. Thank you for writing in!